How Rare Are Mahjong Special Hands? — Real Player Data
The gap between special hands is enormous: most active players have won a Half Flush, while limit hands like Thirteen Orphans and Nine Gates are achieved by only a tiny fraction of players — many never see one. Here are the actual figures from our platform.
Based on 2,044 registered players · Updated 8 August 2026
Special hands, rarest first
For comparison — everyday hands
Everyday hands are achieved by a far larger share of players — the contrast is what puts the special hands in perspective.
How this data is measured
The figures come from achievement badges earned in online Beginner and Advanced games, recompiled every 24 hours. The denominator is all registered players.
How to read it: this is the share of players who have won the hand at least once — not the probability of it occurring in a given game. A player with five hundred games has far more opportunity than one with three, and the denominator includes players who never won a game. This page answers "how many people have done it", not "how likely is it this hand".
For context, 625 players have won at least one online game (i.e. hold at least one badge).
Why some hands are almost never seen
Two structural reasons. First, each honour tile has only four copies — Great Dragons needs three each of Red, Green and White, so nine of just twelve tiles, none of which an opponent may pung away. Second, the concealed requirement: Thirteen Orphans, Nine Gates and Seven Pairs allow no claimed melds at all, so every tile must be self-drawn. That is dramatically slower, and most such hands are overtaken by another player's win or an exhausted wall.
Should you chase one?
Rare does not mean never worth chasing — what matters is when to commit and when to walk away. A hand is only worth pursuing when your opening tiles already qualify; switching mid-game usually lands you between two plans. The companion page lists the exact entry thresholds and abandon signals:
Frequently asked questions
How rare is Thirteen Orphans?
Thirteen Orphans is among the hardest hands in mahjong: you must collect one of each of the thirteen terminals and honours with no claimed melds at all. On our platform the share of registered players who have ever won it is among the lowest of any hand — the table below gives the exact percentage.
What is the rarest mahjong hand?
Generally the hands that must stay fully concealed (Thirteen Orphans, Nine Gates, Seven Pairs) and those needing all four winds or all three dragons (Great Winds, Great Dragons). With only four copies of each honour tile, one pung by an opponent can kill the hand outright.
How is this data calculated?
The figures come from achievement badges our players earn in online Beginner and Advanced games, refreshed every 24 hours. Important: this is the percentage of registered players who have won the hand at least once — not the per-game probability. Players with more games have more opportunity to have earned it.