How Rare Are Mahjong Special Hands? — Real Game Data
The gap between special hands is enormous: a Half Flush turns up every few dozen hands, while limit hands like Thirteen Orphans and Nine Gates appear once in thousands of hands, if at all. Here are the actual per-hand figures from our platform.
Based on 162,390 hands played since 10 August 2026 · Updated 4 November 2026
Special hands, rarest first
For comparison — everyday hands
Everyday hands turn up far more often — the contrast is what puts the special hands in perspective.
How this data is measured
Every online hand is counted the moment it completes. The denominator is every completed hand, draws included; the numerator is how many of those hands were won with the pattern. A sixteen-hand match records sixteen hands, each attributed to that hand's own winner.
How to read it: only tables with at least one real player are counted, and a pattern is only recorded when a real player wins the hand. Hands won by computer opponents still count toward the total but never toward a pattern, so these rates are a conservative floor. Bootcamp and offline games are excluded.
Why some hands are almost never seen
Two structural reasons. First, each honour tile has only four copies — Great Three Dragons needs three each of Red, Green and White, so nine of just twelve tiles, none of which an opponent may pung away. Second, the concealed requirement: Thirteen Orphans, Nine Gates and Seven Pairs allow no claimed melds at all, so every tile must be self-drawn. That is dramatically slower, and most such hands are overtaken by another player's win or an exhausted wall.
Should you chase one?
Rare does not mean never worth chasing — what matters is when to commit and when to walk away. A hand is only worth pursuing when your opening tiles already qualify; switching mid-game usually lands you between two plans. The companion page lists the exact entry thresholds and abandon signals:
Frequently asked questions
How rare is Thirteen Orphans?
Thirteen Orphans is among the hardest hands in mahjong: you must collect one of each of the thirteen terminals and honours with no claimed melds at all. On our platform its occurrence rate is among the lowest of any hand — the table below gives the exact share of hands and roughly how many hands pass between sightings.
What is the rarest mahjong hand?
Generally the hands that must stay fully concealed (Thirteen Orphans, Nine Gates, Seven Pairs) and those needing all four winds or all three dragons (Great Four Winds, Great Three Dragons). With only four copies of each honour tile, one pung by an opponent can kill the hand outright.
How is this data calculated?
Every online hand is recorded live as it completes. The denominator is all completed hands, draws included; the numerator is the number of those hands a real player won with the pattern. Only tables with at least one real player count, and hands won by computer opponents count toward the total but never toward a pattern, so the figures are a conservative floor. Bootcamp and offline games are excluded.